By now you have seen the numbers from the Rasmussen poll conducted the day after the primary election, 10 June 2010. 500 likely voters were surveyed, and Rasmussen found support such:
Paul LePage (R): 43%
Libby Mitchell (D): 36%
Eliot Cutler (I): 7%
Undecided: 14%
Shawn Moody was not part of the survey. YOu can read the actual questions asked here.
I asked them to send me the cross tabs from the survey, which they did - thank you Debbie. What I was looking for specifically was the breakdown of those surveyed (gender, age, income, etc.), but as yet, Rasmussen hasn't provide that information to me. I did get a breakdown by party: 26% were Republicans, 38% were Democrats, and 36% were independents.
But there are some points of interest to be gleaned from what I do have. Mind, this is all very early, but still.
LePage does better amongst men (47%), while Mitchell does better amongst women (42%); no real surprise. LePage does better in those aged 18 to 29 (37%) than Mitchell (22%), but that support is soft - not one person from that age group found him very favorable.
LePage also does much better than Mitchell amongst blacks (34% to 11%), but the size of that sampling couldn't be more than 20 people.
Here is where my bullshit meter starts to go off: Rasmussen claims that 85% of Maine Republicans have either a very favorable or somewhat favorable view of Paul LePage, while 39% of Maine Democrats feel the same way. Thirty-nine percent - riiight!
It comes as no real surprise that Cutler's favorables are clearly in the "not sure" camp, which outscores all four other categories across the spectrum of likely voters.
My meter also pegged when I read that 80% of those surveyed followed very closely or somewhat closely stories about the new immigration law in Arizona. Compare that to the Pan Atlantic poll from last week that had 61% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans undecided as to who they would vote for in the primary. (80% of Republicans surveyed said they favor the Arizona law, SB 1070, and 91% believe that police should be required to check the immigration status of those the stop for a violation.)
Here's my favor part, which regards BP's oil blowout in the Gulf of Mexico:
When asked what impact the oil spill will have on the environment, 5% of Maine Republicans think that it "will have little lasting impact." They obviously haven't done much reading about the Exxon Valdez spill, where one can find oil on the shore by simply scraping down an inch or so.
When asked who should pay for the cleanup, 21% of Maine Republicans think that both BP and the government should (8% of Maine Dems agree). To be fair, 75% of GOP think that BP should be solely responsible (92% of Dems think so too), but I thought Republicans were all about personal responsibility, and against bailouts, etc.?
If any of you have any questions regarding the cross tabs, please ask. Responses are broken down by gender, race, age, and income. |
DIRIGO BLUE is available as an